Upper Respiratory Tract Infection Determination using the Distributed Lag Model

Abstract

The primary focus of the research was on determining whether or not there was a correlation between temperature and the prevalence of upper respiratory tract infections (URI). from 2010 till 2015, URI data as well as weather data will be collected on the daily basis. A non- distributed lag has been used in the non-linear model where it was used to investigate the association among various temperatures, here the morbidity of upper respiratory infections (URI), as well as the possible implications of these variables. According to the findings, the morbidity of URI was significantly related to the meteorological factors, and the peak of the onset of the disease typically occurred between November and February of the following year. This coincided with the time period in which the disease was most likely to spread. The correlation study that was carried out between meteorological parameters and URI cases yielded the finding that the daily morbidity of URI in Lanzhou was connected to air temperature, air pressure, and wind speed. This was discovered by looking at the outcome of the analysis. In Lanzhou, the exposure effect curve for the average daily temperature to different sexes and age groups displayed an M-shaped pattern. The influence of temperature on the daily morbidity of URI showed a significant amount of latency. Because of the low temperature, it manifested itself today, but the maximal impact didn't show up for another two days, and it lasted for another 12 days after that. The female was more susceptible to the effects than the male, and while the effects were readily apparent in adolescents and the elderly, they were not readily apparent in adults. Temperature is the most important determinant in the occurrence of upper respiratory infections (URI) in Lanzhou; nevertheless, meteorological elements have an essential effect as well. Temperature may directly cause the morbidity of URI; it can induce numerous symptoms of URI (such as cold, sore throat, and rhinitis), and it can directly alter the distribution of URI in the population. Temperature can also directly trigger the morbidity of URI.