Technology forecasting using TRIZ on global production trend of non-fossil fuels.

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J. V. Madhuri , LNS Prakash Goteti


Technology forecasting is helpful in deriving insights on utilisation of resources effectively. The analysis helps in decision making towards preserving the resources and exploring alternative means that meet the increasing demands of the society. Generative models that comprise of probabilistic forecasting of changes in technology and discriminative models such as logistic are popular towards such estimates. Global non-fossil fuel production data in particular the solar, nuclear and wind are considered and forecasting models are developed. The present work highlights the predominant exploration of the energy generation based on wind is expected to be prominent during next few years. The approach in general can be applied to similar studies. These results reflect the importance of such studies and associated information towards forecasting based decision-making pertaining to the technology trends.

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